Snap (SNAP) user growth has all but stalled now according to analyst Victor Anthony of Aegis Capital. According to his research from app tracking data, DAU YoY growth fell to only 3% in January and February. The numbers used in the Benzinga post though are consistently lower than those reported by Snap. My original warning was that Snap was a scary IPO with DAUs only growing 3% sequentially during Q4 to 158 million. DAUs actually grew 48% YoY while the app tracking data only showed 15%, A 3% growth rate during Q1 would leave the user total at only 126 million. This number would suggest a QoQ decline of 32 million. Even when Twitter (TWTR) stalled last year, the social-media company only saw a minimal decline in MAUs. Clearly the data isn't correct, but the trajectory is consistently right. One shouldn't expect much sequential user growth during Q1. Under that scenario, no way can investors pay anywhere close to the current valuation. Even with the massive decline, Snap is worth $30 billion. If anything, the user issue with Snap validates Twitter and makes the platform more valuable. Twitter is only worth 1/3rd the value of Snap and is now reaccelerating user growth. One must absolutely avoid Snap as this valuation. The only way to ever justify a valuation in excess of $30 billion to generate a return for shareholders would require user growth at least in excess of 25%. Disclosure: Long TWTR