Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is racing ahead by over $20 on a Q4 warning that earnings will not meet expectations. The market is excited about the comp sales trend during the quarter as follows: October: -20.2%November: -1.4%December: +14.7%The improving trends shouldn't surprise the market considering the original health scare took place at the end of last October. In 2015, Chipotle reported Q4 comps of -14.6% with a December decline of 30%. The comp sales for December are still some 20% below the levels of December 2014 despite being nearly a year removed from the health scare. The stock usually acts irrational so despite trading at over 40x 2017 EPS estimates and all signs pointing towards number cuts, Chipotle is hard to short even up at $415. The trade doesn't turn bullish until the stock breaks the downtrend by moving above $420 and eventually $440. Outside of a technical breakout, the pressure still appears to the downside so investors shouldn't be so fast to rush into Chipotle. A failed breakout here could finally shakeout some of the stubborn bulls. Please subscribe to the site to follow and comment on future posts. Disclosure: No position